Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a significant challenge as the International Criminal Court (ICC) considers issuing arrest warrants for him and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. Although Israel is not an ICC signatory and is not obliged to hand over its leaders, such warrants would restrict their ability to visit the 124 ICC signatory countries.
The warrants would severely impact Netanyahu’s international standing, aligning him with Hamas leaders responsible for the October 7 massacre. Allies like the UK, also ICC signatories, would struggle to maintain relations with Netanyahu if the warrants were issued. The U.S., Israel’s crucial ally, is not a signatory, but Netanyahu’s relationship with the White House has been strained since President Biden’s election.
Domestically, Netanyahu might gain some support by portraying himself as a martyr persecuted by a biased court. Even his political opponents would likely rally around him, despite their criticism of his handling of the war against Hamas in Gaza. However, any boost in support is expected to be temporary.
An ICC arrest warrant would mark the end of Netanyahu’s diplomatic career, as Israel cannot afford to have a leader ostracized on the international stage. Ultimately, Israelis will need to replace him to restore their country’s standing.