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Politico: Forget Xi Jinping or Joe Biden for a second. Meet Taiwan’s next President William Lai, upon whom the fate of U.S.-China relations — and global security over the coming few years — is now thrust.
1. Beijing doesn’t like him.
China has repeatedly condemned Lai, claiming he is the one who will bring war to the island. As recently as last Thursday, Beijing tried to dissuade Taiwanese voters from electing its main enemy to the baroque presidential cabinet in Taipei. This is partly due to a 2017 statement in which Lai described himself as a “fighter for Taiwan’s independence,” which Beijing has repeatedly cited as evidence of his separatist beliefs.
2. All eyes on the next four months.
Instability is expected to increase over the next four months, until Lai’s official inauguration on 20 May. Already a few days before the election, China has sent several spy balloons to monitor Taiwan. On trade, China has also stepped-up pressure. Taiwanese authorities have also uncovered instances of disinformation and election manipulation. All this combined constitutes what Taipei calls hybrid warfare, which now risks escalating further.
3. Lai must tame his independent instinct.
In a sense, he has already done so. Speaking at an international press conference last week, Lai said he has no plans to declare independence if elected president.
4. Taiwan will follow an international approach.
The US, Japan and Europe are expected to prioritise Lai’s diplomatic work, while relations with China are expected to remain negative. According to Taiwanese authorities, Taiwan’s exports to China and Hong Kong fell 18.1 per cent last year from 2022, the biggest decline since the statistics began to be recorded in 1982. In contrast, Taiwan’s exports to the US and Europe grew by 1.6 per cent and 2.9 per cent respectively, with trade volumes reaching historic highs.
5. Lai may face an intransigent parliament.
As vote counting continues, there is a high probability that Lai will have to deal with a divided parliament. Before the election, the Kuomintang Party promised to form a majority in the Yuan (Legislative Yuan – Taiwan’s parliament – Briefly) along with the Taiwan People’s Party, which would effectively make the Lai administration a minority government.
The entire article can be read at the link https://www.politico.eu/article/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-taiwan-new-president-william-lai-elections-dpp/
