Why Putin has every reason to be satisfied with himself

Der Spiegel analyst Ann-Dorit Boy: Last year, Vladimir Putin liked to claim that the “military operation” in Ukraine was going according to plan and that things were looking good for Russia. At the time, many dismissed these claims as propaganda.

For a long time, the West was convinced that Putin’s perfidious plan was doomed to failure and that sooner or later he would have to pay a high economic and political price for the war of aggression. After 21 months of war, Putin’s payday is not in sight, on the contrary: the Kremlin ruler’s calculations are working out wonderfully so far.

The analysis highlights that Russia’s economy has grown, primarily due to increased arms production and high oil prices, which have remained unaffected by sanctions. Internationally, Putin has not become an outcast, recently participating in the G20 virtual meeting on equal terms with other leaders. Domestically, his autocratic rule remains unchallenged, and even the war front has shown improvements from Russia’s perspective.

The hopes of the West that Russia would face economic collapse or internal protests against the government and the war have not materialized. The Russian population has not shown significant war fatigue that could lead to activism, and the regime has avoided a further wave of mobilization, at least until after the upcoming elections. Critical journalism and opposition have been suppressed, with many liberal opponents either leaving the country or being imprisoned.

Morally, Russia may be weakened, and the Kremlin is concealing the true human cost of the war. However, Putin’s regime has become more stable through the conflict, and Russia appears stronger in the eyes of a ruthless autocrat. The analysis concludes that for the situation to change significantly, there would need to be a drop in oil prices, more stringent sanctions, and a shift in the military balance in Ukraine’s favor through increased Western arms supplies. Only then might Putin’s regime face serious challenges.

The entire article can be read at the link https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-und-die-ukraine-warum-wladimir-putin-allen-grund-hat-mit-sich-zufrieden-zu-sein-a-2799e5c6-4642-497c-b325-97c418f7c94d