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The Economist: Should Democrats be panicked by poll results where Trump is more popular in key swing states? They can reassure themselves with polling errors. Polls are getting harder to conduct because fewer Americans are answering the questions. However, other polls also show a tight race, so this result is no exception. Another argument for calm is the drift of public opinion. Polls taken a year before an election are almost useless in predicting the final outcome. The U.S. presidential election is heavily contested. But most Americans have long-held political beliefs that don’t change for years.
▪️ Those who avoid predictions based on early polls and bet on fundamentals, such as the president’s approval rating and the state of the economy, should also be concerned. Joe Biden’s approval rating is at 16%. This is almost identical to Donald Trump’s standing at this stage of his presidency. 55% of Americans say the state of the economy is getting worse. Because of inflation, real wages have fallen about 1.4% since January 2021. Another difficulty is age. Biden, soon to be 81, understandably has a tired face and sometimes slurs his words. American voters seem little reassured by the presence as vice president of Kamala Harris, who generally performs as poorly, if not worse, than her boss. All this is not to say that Biden has been a bad president.
▪️ Biden doesn’t seem intent on resigning, and the party doesn’t seem intent on dumping him. So what can he do? The president will have to get working class voters, both white and non-white, who have drifted toward the Republican Party on his side. He will have to generate enthusiasm among progressives irritated by the administration’s policies toward Israel. Young voters will need to be encouraged to be enthusiastic about their elderly president.
The entire article can be read at the link https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/11/07/donald-trump-looks-terrifyingly-electable
