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Lanxin Xiang, professor emeritus at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, for the South China Morning Post: With the election of an ardent MAGA Republican (*Make America Great Again is Donald Trump’s political slogan, also used by his supporters) as Speaker of the House in Washington, the end of the counteroffensive on Ukraine may have come. Mike Johnson opposes continued aid to Ukraine. If the U.S. withdraws aid, it is hardly conceivable that Europe will be able or even willing to fill the gap.
In contrast, the Russian economy has not suffered a mortal wound despite the comprehensive sanctions’ regime imposed against it. The Russian economy is projected to grow at 2.5% this year, well ahead of Germany. If economic sanctions don’t work and military action goes nowhere, a ceasefire remains the only option. Russian President Vladimir Putin can afford two options: continue fighting until the results of next year’s U.S. presidential election or negotiate a cease-fire now to preserve Russia’s newly acquired territories.
There are three models for an effective ceasefire in Ukraine.
▪️ The first is the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement. This model is not perfect, but it prevented active hostilities for 70 years. The mechanism is to create a demilitarized zone respected by all parties.
▪️ The second is the Kashmir model in the dispute between India and Pakistan. A ceasefire is maintained on the Line of Control where neither side recognizes the territorial claims of the other. This model is unsustainable, but only a few minor conflicts have occurred in Kashmir since 1948.
▪️ The third is the Cyprus Ceasefire Agreement, under which a ceasefire between Turkey and Cyprus has been in place since 1964. This is an ideal model. Although a permanent solution has not been agreed, UN peacekeepers are allowed to operate in a buffer zone between the two regions to maintain the ceasefire.
A ceasefire in Ukraine is likely only possible under the Kashmir model, as the other two models require Kiev to recognize Russia’s territorial gains. The question is what mechanism can be put in place to maintain its stability.
The entire article can be read at the link https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239380/ukraine-war-stalemate-makes-ceasefire-only-realistic-option
