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The New York Times: Given the intensity of the fighting in Ukraine, military analysts generally agree that Moscow and Kiev will have difficulty building up forces for an offensive. What matters now is the ability to hold out and replenish personnel and equipment.
▪️ The head of Estonian military intelligence, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, said that Russia still has about four million artillery shells. This is enough to continue low-intensity fighting for another year. He also cited Western intelligence reports that North Korea had recently transferred artillery shells to Russia and suggested that up to 350,000 shells had been delivered.
▪️ RUSI expert Jack Watling writes that Russia is likely to have a “material advantage” in the coming months and that “Kiev must fight cautiously to hold the initiative.” A year ago, Russia was producing about 40 long-range missiles a month, RUSI analysts say. It now produces more than 100 missiles a month.
▪️ Ukraine is also ramping up weapons production domestically, allocating more than $1bn to drone production and inviting Western arms manufacturers.
▪️ Kiev hopes that strikes on command centres, ammunition depots, supply lines and bases far from the front will steadily reduce Russia’s combat capability. But Moscow this year has shown serious adaptability to combat conditions. It may try to change supply routes or use its own artillery and aircraft to counter Ukrainian shelling.
▪️ Even if Russia seeks to use winter as a weapon against Ukrainian civilians, Kiev will try to destroy Russian infrastructure far behind the front lines and turn winter into a weapon against demoralised Russian soldiers.
The entire article can be read at the link https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/23/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war.html?searchResultPosition=1
