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The Wall Street Journal: A massive solar storm could one day result in widespread power outages, affecting millions of people across the U.S. Such an event might take months or even years to recover from. Though the odds of a major solar storm happening in any given year are low, the impacts are severe, with various factors influencing the outcome, such as Earth’s magnetic field condition at that time. Ian Cohen, a heliophysics specialist at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, believes that a solar catastrophe of this magnitude is almost inevitable in the future.
To address this looming threat, a consortium of U.S. and international agencies, along with countless scientists, are striving to predict the Sun’s activities. Many scientists contend that artificial intelligence (AI) will play a crucial role in providing advanced warnings about these solar storms.
Coronal mass ejections, which are the most perilous type of solar storms, involve the release of vast amounts of charged particles from the Sun at extremely high speeds. While these events occur frequently, they only pose a threat when they strike Earth. These particle explosions can severely disrupt power grids and electronics when they collide with our planet. This is because the interaction between the sun’s magnetic field and ours can produce significant currents in our power lines, potentially damaging our power distribution system. Undersea internet cables, though not electrical carriers, have signal-repeaters that can be rendered ineffective. Additionally, solar storms can harm satellites, and in February 2022, caused the destruction of 40 Starlink satellites.
Historically, the Carrington Event in 1859 is a testament to the devastating power of solar storms. Such intense storms have varied frequency estimates, with some scientists believing they occur roughly every 60 years, while others claim every 150 years.
Significant solar storms don’t necessarily need to be of maximum intensity to cause substantial damage. Past incidents, such as the 1972 event that triggered the detonation of mines off Vietnam, and the 1989 storm that resulted in a power outage in Quebec, illustrate this.
The Sun’s current phase of peak activity, culminating in mid-2024, has been observed to be more violent than the previous cycles. Cohen urges preparedness for these events.
Currently, we have limited advanced warning capabilities, offering just a few hours, and sometimes even just minutes, of notice for a destructive solar storm. The European Space Agency’s proposed Vigil satellite could potentially extend this to five hours, allowing for the precautionary shutdown of electronics.
Innovations in AI, led by organizations like the Frontier Development Lab, are working on models that use deep learning to study the solar wind and predict the disturbances an incoming storm would cause. Despite its potential, this research is nascent. Predicting space weather with AI demands a wealth of data, and most of our sun-observing instruments were designed for scientific exploration rather than as part of an early-warning system.
The Inouye Solar Telescope, which began operations in 2021, is set to revolutionize continuous sun observation. Likewise, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe offers groundbreaking insights into solar storms.
The DstLive system, launched in December 2022, utilizes machine learning to provide a global measure, similar to the Richter scale, indicating the storm’s potential intensity on Earth.
To test preparedness, the Applied Physics Lab plans to simulate a significant solar storm in early 2024, involving various stakeholders, similar to military war games. Given the potential consequences, the stakes of such preparations are arguably even greater.
The entire article can be read at the link https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/solar-storm-early-warning-system-b6324524?mod=science_lead_story
